Page 19 - Bombardier Market Forecast
P. 19
current market drivers
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 19
Business Jet Penetration Penetration Rates by Region
in Growth Markets Fleet per Capita vs. GDP per Capita, 1960-2010
Business jet penetration is a measure of 10,000
the number of business jets in each of the
forecast regions relative to the size of that
region’s economy, as measured by Gross 1 driving NORTH AMERICA
st
Domestic Product (GDP). The penetration force: GDP Average
rate of business jets by region is highly Scale) 1,000 growth growth path
variable. The most established market for (Log
business jets, North America, has the world’s
largest fleet which continues to grow, but at LATIN AMERICA EUROPE &
a low rate. On the other hand, China has a Population RUSSIA
very low number of business jets relative to 100
the size of its economy and is now entering Million
a high growth rate phase for its business
jet fleet. In order to normalize for differing 100
population sizes in each region, penetration per
rates and GDP are best compared on a Fleet 10 MIDDLE-EAST 2 nd driving
& AFRICA
force:
per capita basis. ASIA removal of
barriers
Growth of business jet fleets over the longer-
term in each region is best estimated by an
expected market maturity curve. This curve, 1
an adaptation of the Bass diffusion curve first 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
published in 1969, resembles an “S” shape GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
with the highest growth occurring in the early
phases of market adoption and slowing Source: Fleet from Ascend, GDP and Population from IMF.
growth as the market matures.
The penetration rate of business jets by region is
highly variable; each region is at a different stage.
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 19
Business Jet Penetration Penetration Rates by Region
in Growth Markets Fleet per Capita vs. GDP per Capita, 1960-2010
Business jet penetration is a measure of 10,000
the number of business jets in each of the
forecast regions relative to the size of that
region’s economy, as measured by Gross 1 driving NORTH AMERICA
st
Domestic Product (GDP). The penetration force: GDP Average
rate of business jets by region is highly Scale) 1,000 growth growth path
variable. The most established market for (Log
business jets, North America, has the world’s
largest fleet which continues to grow, but at LATIN AMERICA EUROPE &
a low rate. On the other hand, China has a Population RUSSIA
very low number of business jets relative to 100
the size of its economy and is now entering Million
a high growth rate phase for its business
jet fleet. In order to normalize for differing 100
population sizes in each region, penetration per
rates and GDP are best compared on a Fleet 10 MIDDLE-EAST 2 nd driving
& AFRICA
force:
per capita basis. ASIA removal of
barriers
Growth of business jet fleets over the longer-
term in each region is best estimated by an
expected market maturity curve. This curve, 1
an adaptation of the Bass diffusion curve first 100 1,000 10,000 100,000
published in 1969, resembles an “S” shape GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
with the highest growth occurring in the early
phases of market adoption and slowing Source: Fleet from Ascend, GDP and Population from IMF.
growth as the market matures.
The penetration rate of business jets by region is
highly variable; each region is at a different stage.
