Page 23 - Bombardier Market Forecast
P. 23
the forecast
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 23
Orders, Deliveries and Business Jet Industry 20-Year Deliveries Outlook
Revenues Units, calendar years, 1991-2030
With the continued recovery of the worldwide 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030
economy in 2010 and 2011, leading indicators 3,600 units 6,400 units 10,000 units 14,000 units
for business aviation are improving, resulting
in increased orders for new business jets 1600
and much fewer cancellations. This trend 1400
is expected to continue, primarily driven by
growth in emerging markets and replacement 1200
demand in more established markets.
1000
However, industry deliveries tend to lag order 800
intake as manufacturers strive to maintain
acceptable backlog levels. As a result, 600
industry deliveries for 2011 are expected 400
to be relatively flat when compared to 2010
(approximately 530 aircraft). Improved orders 200
and backlog should result in increasing 0
industry deliveries beginning in 2012. The 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
recovery in deliveries is then expected to
be strong and we forecast that the industry Sources: Bombardier Forecasting Model.
will surpass the prior delivery peak year
(2008) by as early as 2014.
Increased orders and backlog
should result in increasing industry
deliveries beginning in 2012.
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 23
Orders, Deliveries and Business Jet Industry 20-Year Deliveries Outlook
Revenues Units, calendar years, 1991-2030
With the continued recovery of the worldwide 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030
economy in 2010 and 2011, leading indicators 3,600 units 6,400 units 10,000 units 14,000 units
for business aviation are improving, resulting
in increased orders for new business jets 1600
and much fewer cancellations. This trend 1400
is expected to continue, primarily driven by
growth in emerging markets and replacement 1200
demand in more established markets.
1000
However, industry deliveries tend to lag order 800
intake as manufacturers strive to maintain
acceptable backlog levels. As a result, 600
industry deliveries for 2011 are expected 400
to be relatively flat when compared to 2010
(approximately 530 aircraft). Improved orders 200
and backlog should result in increasing 0
industry deliveries beginning in 2012. The 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
recovery in deliveries is then expected to
be strong and we forecast that the industry Sources: Bombardier Forecasting Model.
will surpass the prior delivery peak year
(2008) by as early as 2014.
Increased orders and backlog
should result in increasing industry
deliveries beginning in 2012.
