Page 21 - Bombardier Market Forecast
P. 21
current market drivers
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 21
Aircraft Retirements Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in Europe The amount of aircraft that retire within the
taking effect in 2012. The ETS will penalize forecast period will vary considerably by
As of early 2011, the average age of the
worldwide business jet fleet was 15.7 years, aircraft types with older technology engines region. Naturally, the regions having well-
with approximately 60% of the fleet being that burn more fuel and therefore emit more established business jet fleets and older
greenhouse gas (CO2). Similarly, planned
average fleet ages will experience the
less than 15 years old. However, around 400 airspace modernization in the United States greatest numbers of retirements. Regions
aircraft are in excess of 40 years.
(FAA NextGen), in Europe (Single European that currently have relatively small business
Sky) and elsewhere will require advanced jets fleets, such as China, will experience
To date, the total number of permanent flight deck avionics technologies. It may not relatively fewer business jet retirements
retirements of business jets has been low.
However, as a result of emerging environmental be economically feasible to retrofit older during the forecast period.
concerns, new regulations and airspace aircraft cockpits with the required avionics
technology, rendering these types obsolete.
modernization, the retirement of the oldest
business jets is expected to accelerate.
Environmental regulations include potential These dynamics will result in a reduction
of the business jet fleet half-life (age at which
airport restrictions on Stage 2 business jet 50% of aircraft have retired) from 40 years
operations and the introduction of the
in 2010 to 30 years in 2030.
Cumulative Retirement By Age Overall Fleet By Age
%, 2010-2030 Units as of December 31, 2010
100 3,500
90 Fleet Overall Average Age: 15.7 years
80
2,700
70 2,400
Aircraft Retired (%) 50 30 years 40 years # of Aircraft 1,600
60
40
30 1,300 1,200 1,200
20 2010
2020
10 2030 380 340
0 55
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Aircraft Age (Years) 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50
Age Bracket
Source: BBA Market Forecast Model.
Sources: Ascend Online as of December 31, 2011. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 21
Aircraft Retirements Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in Europe The amount of aircraft that retire within the
taking effect in 2012. The ETS will penalize forecast period will vary considerably by
As of early 2011, the average age of the
worldwide business jet fleet was 15.7 years, aircraft types with older technology engines region. Naturally, the regions having well-
with approximately 60% of the fleet being that burn more fuel and therefore emit more established business jet fleets and older
greenhouse gas (CO2). Similarly, planned
average fleet ages will experience the
less than 15 years old. However, around 400 airspace modernization in the United States greatest numbers of retirements. Regions
aircraft are in excess of 40 years.
(FAA NextGen), in Europe (Single European that currently have relatively small business
Sky) and elsewhere will require advanced jets fleets, such as China, will experience
To date, the total number of permanent flight deck avionics technologies. It may not relatively fewer business jet retirements
retirements of business jets has been low.
However, as a result of emerging environmental be economically feasible to retrofit older during the forecast period.
concerns, new regulations and airspace aircraft cockpits with the required avionics
technology, rendering these types obsolete.
modernization, the retirement of the oldest
business jets is expected to accelerate.
Environmental regulations include potential These dynamics will result in a reduction
of the business jet fleet half-life (age at which
airport restrictions on Stage 2 business jet 50% of aircraft have retired) from 40 years
operations and the introduction of the
in 2010 to 30 years in 2030.
Cumulative Retirement By Age Overall Fleet By Age
%, 2010-2030 Units as of December 31, 2010
100 3,500
90 Fleet Overall Average Age: 15.7 years
80
2,700
70 2,400
Aircraft Retired (%) 50 30 years 40 years # of Aircraft 1,600
60
40
30 1,300 1,200 1,200
20 2010
2020
10 2030 380 340
0 55
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Aircraft Age (Years) 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50
Age Bracket
Source: BBA Market Forecast Model.
Sources: Ascend Online as of December 31, 2011. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.
