Page 16 - Bombardier Market Forecast
P. 16
current market drivers
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 16
The Pre-Owned Aircraft Market likely to purchase a replacement. The accumu- Through the first half of 2008, residual values
lation of aircraft on the pre-owned market was were still high due to manufacturers’ long
Over 60% of new business jet orders represent
replacement aircraft for current owners. a leading indicator of the new business aircraft backlogs. Since then, residual values have
market downturn that started in Q4-2008. At
dropped across all aircraft categories. During
The demand for new aircraft is stimulated by
the conditions prevailing on the pre-owned the end of 2007, the pre-owned inventory was 2009, average business jet residual values fell
by 17 percentage points. In the first quarter
sitting at a low of 10.5%. The level started to
market. This market is considered healthy
when residual values are high and when the climb in the beginning of 2008 and peaked at of 2011, residual values appeared to be
17.8% in Q2-2009. During the second half of
bottoming.
inventory of used aircraft for sale is low.
2009, as pre-owned sales activity strength-
ened, inventory started to decline steadily.
In the beginning of 2008, the percentage of
the overall business jet fleet for sale on the By Q1-2011, pre-owned inventories had
fallen to 14.4%, continuing a gradually
pre-owned market started to increase rapidly.
Many owners experienced difficulties selling improving trend. We expect pre-owned
inventory levels to stabilize forward in a range
their aircraft, which, in turn, made them less
of 11% to 13%.
Pre-Owned Aircraft Inventory as a % of the Fleet 5-Year Residual Value as a % of the Original B&CA List Price
%, calendar years 2005-2011 All business jets, %, calendar years 2005-2011
92% 91%
89%
17.8% 86% 86% 86% 86%
80% 81% 83% 83% 84% 83% 82% 81%
78% 79%
14.4%
67% 66% 65% 67%
65%
63%
61% 61%
10.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
Sources: Aircraft inventory and fleet from JETNET. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories. Sources: Residual values from Aircraft Bluebook Price Digest, original list price from B&CA.
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 16
The Pre-Owned Aircraft Market likely to purchase a replacement. The accumu- Through the first half of 2008, residual values
lation of aircraft on the pre-owned market was were still high due to manufacturers’ long
Over 60% of new business jet orders represent
replacement aircraft for current owners. a leading indicator of the new business aircraft backlogs. Since then, residual values have
market downturn that started in Q4-2008. At
dropped across all aircraft categories. During
The demand for new aircraft is stimulated by
the conditions prevailing on the pre-owned the end of 2007, the pre-owned inventory was 2009, average business jet residual values fell
by 17 percentage points. In the first quarter
sitting at a low of 10.5%. The level started to
market. This market is considered healthy
when residual values are high and when the climb in the beginning of 2008 and peaked at of 2011, residual values appeared to be
17.8% in Q2-2009. During the second half of
bottoming.
inventory of used aircraft for sale is low.
2009, as pre-owned sales activity strength-
ened, inventory started to decline steadily.
In the beginning of 2008, the percentage of
the overall business jet fleet for sale on the By Q1-2011, pre-owned inventories had
fallen to 14.4%, continuing a gradually
pre-owned market started to increase rapidly.
Many owners experienced difficulties selling improving trend. We expect pre-owned
inventory levels to stabilize forward in a range
their aircraft, which, in turn, made them less
of 11% to 13%.
Pre-Owned Aircraft Inventory as a % of the Fleet 5-Year Residual Value as a % of the Original B&CA List Price
%, calendar years 2005-2011 All business jets, %, calendar years 2005-2011
92% 91%
89%
17.8% 86% 86% 86% 86%
80% 81% 83% 83% 84% 83% 82% 81%
78% 79%
14.4%
67% 66% 65% 67%
65%
63%
61% 61%
10.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
Sources: Aircraft inventory and fleet from JETNET. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories. Sources: Residual values from Aircraft Bluebook Price Digest, original list price from B&CA.
