Page 15 - Bombardier Market Forecast
P. 15
current market drivers
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 15
Backlog Industry Backlog Industry Backlog
Estimated units, calendar years 2001-2010 Estimated Value ($B), Q1-11
Backlog refers to the total number of orders
not yet delivered. In the business aircraft 3,000 $48.3B
industry, order backlog indicates potential
for deliveries in the upcoming years. OEMs
adjust their production rates based on their 2,500 Light:
current backlog levels and their expectations $7.3 B
regarding the number of orders they can 2,000
obtain in the future. Production rate changes
are a costly and complex matter, due to the 1,500 Medium:
expenses associated with hiring or laying-off Large: $8.0 B
employees, as well as adjustments to the $33.0 B
supply chain and scheduling. Therefore, 1,000
manufacturers aim to smooth out their pro-
duction rates to maximize deliveries while 500
minimizing the risk of frequent changes.
0 Sources: Orders estimated from competitive intelligence,
In terms of business jet industry orders, OEM guidance, 2011 List price from B&CA.
2007 was a record year, with close to 1,800 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
estimated orders for the Light, Medium and Sources: Orders estimated from competitive intelligence, OEM guidance.
Large aircraft categories. The first half of 2008
continued to be strong, as manufacturers The Medium category, although enduring Moving forward, reduced near-term deliveries
recorded more than 1,300 orders. The overall decreasing production rates, was affected to combined with the progressive return to
industry backlog peaked during 2008 at more a lesser extent, and the Large aircraft category positive industry net orders should result
than 3,000 units. However, toward the end of was only slightly affected. in industry backlogs stabilizing and growing,
2008, the economic downturn led to an with the Large aircraft category leading the
abrupt drop in orders and a significant We estimated the industry backlog at about next up-cycle.
number of cancellations. 1,400 aircraft at the end of Q1-2011. This
corresponds to an estimated value of $48
The Light aircraft category was affected billion, $30 billion less than a few days prior
the most by order cancellations and, as a to the Lehman Brothers collapse (Q3-2008).
result, experienced the greatest changes Deliveries decreased by 43% between
in production rates. 2008 and 2010.
Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 15
Backlog Industry Backlog Industry Backlog
Estimated units, calendar years 2001-2010 Estimated Value ($B), Q1-11
Backlog refers to the total number of orders
not yet delivered. In the business aircraft 3,000 $48.3B
industry, order backlog indicates potential
for deliveries in the upcoming years. OEMs
adjust their production rates based on their 2,500 Light:
current backlog levels and their expectations $7.3 B
regarding the number of orders they can 2,000
obtain in the future. Production rate changes
are a costly and complex matter, due to the 1,500 Medium:
expenses associated with hiring or laying-off Large: $8.0 B
employees, as well as adjustments to the $33.0 B
supply chain and scheduling. Therefore, 1,000
manufacturers aim to smooth out their pro-
duction rates to maximize deliveries while 500
minimizing the risk of frequent changes.
0 Sources: Orders estimated from competitive intelligence,
In terms of business jet industry orders, OEM guidance, 2011 List price from B&CA.
2007 was a record year, with close to 1,800 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
estimated orders for the Light, Medium and Sources: Orders estimated from competitive intelligence, OEM guidance.
Large aircraft categories. The first half of 2008
continued to be strong, as manufacturers The Medium category, although enduring Moving forward, reduced near-term deliveries
recorded more than 1,300 orders. The overall decreasing production rates, was affected to combined with the progressive return to
industry backlog peaked during 2008 at more a lesser extent, and the Large aircraft category positive industry net orders should result
than 3,000 units. However, toward the end of was only slightly affected. in industry backlogs stabilizing and growing,
2008, the economic downturn led to an with the Large aircraft category leading the
abrupt drop in orders and a significant We estimated the industry backlog at about next up-cycle.
number of cancellations. 1,400 aircraft at the end of Q1-2011. This
corresponds to an estimated value of $48
The Light aircraft category was affected billion, $30 billion less than a few days prior
the most by order cancellations and, as a to the Lehman Brothers collapse (Q3-2008).
result, experienced the greatest changes Deliveries decreased by 43% between
in production rates. 2008 and 2010.
